A New Era Trump in the Middle East?
July 14, 2017
If the West really seeks to pacify the Middle East and become more credible, it should abandon its illusions and no longer take its desires for reality. He should think about the following facts that it is difficult to dodge too long.
Israel and its Arab environment
Israel is reborn from exile by the Balfour declaration of 1917, which restored to it a territory lost 20 centuries ago in the Middle East. This almost desert territory was home to a small number of Jews, Arabs and nomadic Bedouins. (see www.nuitdorient.com/n722.htm )
The Balfour Declaration will be celebrated this year by Great Britain. It was concretized by the San Remo agreements of 1920, then by the decision of the UN in 1947. This creates in Palestine mandated, managed by Great Britain during 30 years, 2 states, the one Jewish, the other Arab. Refusing the UN resolution, 5 Arab states are waging war against the new Israeli state, without success. The armistice imposed by the UN in 1949 freezes lines separating Jews and Arabs. Egypt occupies and manages a strip of territory near its borders, Gaza. Jordan occupies and manages the West Bank (Judea and Samaria for Jews). And nobody talks about an Arab Palestine.
Faced with a provocation by Nasser's Egypt in June 1967, blocking the Strait of Tiran in the Red Sea, Israel waged a six-day preventive war and defeated four Arab armies, occupying all of Mandatory Palestine, Sinai and the Golan. A peace treaty was signed in 1979 with Egypt recovering all Sinai and renouncing the Gaza Strip. Another peace treaty was signed in 1994 with Jordan renouncing the West Bank.
From 1917 until 1964, the word Palestine refers to Jewish territory for Jews, and the term Palestinian Refers to a Jew of Palestine, not an Arab, called Syrian, Egyptian or simply Arab.
The Arabs never wanted to create an Arab state called Palestine. Moreover the letter P does not exist in the Arabic language, so no "Palestine" (1).
In 1964, Yasser Arafat, an Egyptian, created the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), claiming all of the Mandatory Palestine to house half a million Arab refugees in the neighboring Arab states, and another half a million living in places, and often settled where Jews offered income-generating activities. Arafat has thus created from scratch a new fictitious Arab identity which claims until today all the Palestine Mandatewith the help of Arab states and some Western countries. Thus, through this new Arab national fiction, the Arabs can claim all the territory that they could never obtain after 3 successive wars (1948 / 9-1967-1973). In the PLO's charter, Israel has no existence! (see www.nuitdorient.com/n726.htm )
In fact, Islam can not tolerate a Jewish state within it. It will tolerate a paying tribute Jewish community, within a new Arab state, but not a Jewish nation.
And for 70 years, the scaffolding of various plans with 2 states, seems illusory if not unrealistic, because no leader said "Palestinian" will agree to sign a document of sharing and peace with a Jewish state. He will be assassinated as was Sadat in 1981. If Hussein of Jordan escaped from it, it is because he is a Hashemite, a descendant of the prophet, exempt from death (see www.nuitdorient.com/n742.htm ).
But it turns out that in nearly 70 years, the Jewish state, which has fought several times for its existence, has become a major state that contributes in a remarkable way to the good of the planet by its exemplarity in many areas. It even provokes the jealousy of much older and more populated nations. Israel has become in almost 70 years a country with which one has to rely and on whom one can count.
Israel is fighting against the Islamic doctrinal rejection which is materialized by wars, "intifadas" or guerillas of all kinds and also by a permanent Iranian nuclear threat (see table www.nuitdorient.com/n741.htm ).
By pursuing the illusion of a two-state solution and constantly asking concessions to Israel, under the pretext that it is a strong state, the West has only exacerbated the Islamic will to do battle with the Jewish state.
Since the 1993 Oslo Accords, where some autonomy has been granted to Arab areas of Judea and Samaria (West Bank), Palestinian terrorism has never ceased.
In 2005, Israel withdrew unilaterally from the Gaza Strip. He was immediately replaced by Hamas, a terrorist group, dedicated to the destruction of its neighbor Israel. Any withdrawal from the West Bank can only have the same consequences.
Israel is no longer a candidate for suicide. Therefore, if we want to leave the status quo, the two avenues to explore are the attachment of a part of the West Bank to Jordan or its accession to greater autonomy (zones A / B), the annexation of the zone. C by Israel and the trusteeship of the Gaza Strip.
Moscow, the Shiite axis and the others
With the US withdrawal from the Middle East under the Obama administration, the vacuum gradually filled with strategic needs and hegemonic ambitions:
– Russia seeks to sustain the naval bases of Lattakieh and Tartous in the Eastern Mediterranean and newly established air bases. For this purpose, it will keep Alawite-Shiite Bashar al-Assad in power in Western Syria and, if possible, throughout Syria. In addition to the opening of potential markets, a tactical alliance with Iran allows it to eliminate or at least neutralize a dangerous enemy, the Islamic State, which it has already practiced in Afghanistan in the past, under the name of "taliban".
But Iran is the "padrone" of many terrorist groups, the most important of which is Hezbollah, which has managed to rule Lebanon (see www.nuitdorient.com/n738.htm ), and there the interests between Iran and the United States may diverge. Donald Trump does not want General Sulaimani's Al Quds brigades and other foreign Shiite militias to drag on in Syria, especially in the southern part of Israel and Jordan.
– Turkey Erdogan seeks to regain his past glory in the Ottoman Empire, through the chaos created in Syria / Iraq, and to prevent the creation of an independent Kurdish state. It has to play a triple game, alliance with the West against the Islamic State, occupation of territories in Syria / Iraq to contain the Kurdish advance, and benevolence towards various Sunni Islamist rebel groups, financed by the Qatar, to establish its authority in Islam.
– Iran seeks to outwit the Sunni Islam and create a Shiite axis linking the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean and to control the straits around the Arabian Peninsula, directly or through a satellite in Yemen, the Shiite Houthie tribe . Moreover, the ayatollahs threaten the new, strong, resurgent state of Israel, the nuclear weapon, available in the short or medium term, despite the fragile agreements signed with the West.
The necessary Kurdish state
Despite the resolution of the nations to create an independent Kurdistan, the 30 million Kurds are still divided between 4 countries, Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. They managed to have real autonomy in Iraq, a false autonomy in Turkey and hope to have it in Syria, taking advantage of the local chaos. But they have constituted an efficient, courageous and exemplary army in Iraq, the only one to defeat ISIS.
But Kurds are a secular ethnic group, with a language, customs and a particular culture, a true nation deserving a state. The West should help to create this state necessary for the strategic balance of the Middle East, and to provide all the necessary weapons for this purpose. Already, a referendum is planned in Iraqi Kurdistan in September to decide on independence or maintenance as an autonomous province in Iraq.
Foreign Affairs of the West
Both the State Department, the Foreign Office and the Quai d'Orsay are under the influence of a pro-Arab policy, atavistic but increasingly obsolete, paralyzing governments in their willingness to adapt to changes strategic. It is amazing to witness serious controversy within the administrations when it comes to the politics of a new government vis-à-vis the Arab states. To the point that one wonders if the chaos that persists in the Middle East since the 1era World War, that is for a century, would not be due to this particular and suspicious attachment of "Foreign Affairs" to Arab-Islamism.
A New Era Trump in the Middle East?
With the coming to power in the United States of a president carried by a current "popular" and not only by an elitist state apparatus that has lasted too long, we should hope for a change in the policy practiced so far by America in the Middle East.
Recommendations and conclusion
We advocate the following four avenues to explore, if America wants to overcome ISIS and stabilize the region.
- Elimination or at least neutralization of the Islamic ayatollahs who have occupied Iran for 37 years and the Islamic push of Erdogan which has already lasted 15 years. The West should strengthen the sanctions, instead of lightening them and favoring and assisting groups and ethnic groups who want the fall of the oligarchy of ayatollahs. The West should threaten Turkey with exclusion from NATO and sanctions, to calm President Erdogan's hegemony and "full powers", while favoring freedom-loving local groups, now muzzled or in prison.
- Stop the indirect financing of terrorism through donations and subsidies to the Palestinian authorities and a more uncompromising attitude towards the Arab kingdoms and emirates such as Qatar that finance Islamic militias and terrorist groups, such as Hamas.
- Stronger attitude towards the so-called Palestinian leaders, more objective attitude with regard to the true goals of Fatah and Hamas (teaching of hatred in schools, war propaganda, encouragement of terror etc ...)
- Assistance to the creation of an independent state in Kurdistan and its supply of means to overcome what is left of the Islamic State.
If the reflexes and pro-Arab-Islamic habits of Foreign Affairs continue, the situation in the Middle East will not only not improve, but may worsen over time.
And this is not by asking Israel unceasingly concessions, accompanied by the litany of "2 states for 2 peoples", for the creation of a 23th Arab state, potentially terrorist and dedicated to the destruction of its Jewish neighbor, will obtain peace in the region.
Since the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, several indications show that we are gradually moving in the right direction.
- During his trip to Riyadh, Donald Trump signed an agreement with the Sunni Arab countries to stop the financing of Islamism and Islamic terrorism and that an alliance with Israel be put in place to stem Iran. An anti-financing agreement for terrorist groups (including Hamas and Hezbollah) has been signed with Qatar.
- During his trip to Jerusalem, Trump insisted on the unwavering alliance with Israel, did not mention "the two-state solution", or the settlements in Judea and Samaria and he lambasted incitement to hatred. Palestinian Authority and its financial and moral encouragement to local terror.
- During his trip to Brussels, Trump expressed his disagreement with the Paris agreement on the climate and meant the exit of the United States of this agreement, to be able to be free on the plane of the exploitation of energy resources that allow his country to have global influence and not depend on oil or gas Arab, Iranian or Russian. He also urged European NATO member countries to become more involved in financing defense needs.
- In his speech in Warsaw, he magnified Western civilization with regard to the invasion of Islamist culture. He reinforced the idea of an alliance between the twelve countries of Central Europe (Three Seas Initiative) to improve their position against Russia.
Donald Trump has obtained from Putin the end of any military operation in southern Syria, bordering Israel and Jordan, and the creation of a fifty-kilometer buffer zone where any presence of Hezbollah and Iranian elements is prohibited.
(1) No "peace" either. In Islam, peace does not exist for the infidel or the enemy. There are only temporary truces, the time that Islam finds the strength and the means necessary for the pursuit of its conquests.