The wave of popular and spontaneous protest that shakes Iran has already caused twenty deaths. The difficult economic situation feeds the anger of unstructured protesters and no real leader. However the crisis is serious for the regime of the mullahs who seems caught off guard. Image: AP
PRomish President Rohani, the economic upturn does not benefit the man in the street. Enough is enough!
"Death to America! Death to Israel! We offer our guide the blood that flows through our veins! "Tens of thousands of people marched Wednesday in several cities in Iran to condemn the" unrest "that shake the country since last Thursday. They have already killed 21 people and led to hundreds of arrests. Sometimes violent, protesters denounce to the four corners of the Islamic Republic the austerity imposed on the population, while enriches an elite close to power. What destabilize the "moderate" president Hassan Rohani, who could not keep his promises, hindered by the supreme guide Ali Khamenei and threatened by ultraconservative circles, decrypts Mohammad-Reza Djalili, professor emeritus at the Institute of Advanced Studies and development. Can the protest movement last? Analysis.
Do the protesters really translate the fed up of the Iranian population? Or is it the fact of a minority?
It is the result of accumulated frustrations. In ten years, the Iranians have seen their purchasing power decrease by 15%. It's a lot. There has been an economic upturn since the signing in 2015 of the nuclear agreement (note: and therefore the lifting of international sanctions), but this has not been reflected in the daily lives of most people. The rich are getting richer, the poor more and more poor. This is shocking given the luxury that surrounds those who succeed in business and who are generally close to power. Meanwhile, according to official figures, 12.5% of the workforce is unemployed, but the reality is probably more on the 20% side. The promises of President Rohani have not been kept. So when protestors took to the streets in Mashhad, Iranians found the courage to go out to protest across the country. Unlike the protest movement of 2009, this time it is not a concentrated phenomenon in the big cities.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sees the fact of foreign powers. Is there some truth?
Conspiracy theories still have some success in the Middle East. There is no doubt that Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and the Saudi monarchy are trying to stir up the fire in hopes of seeing the protest in Iran intensify. But the reasons for this challenge are primarily economic and internal. It is true that we heard slogans against the regime's foreign policy, which supports Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon or President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. But it is also linked to the exorbitant cost of these operations. Iran does not have the means available to Saudi Arabia or even the United Arab Emirates. Tehran's regional power politics is so unpopular that the regime has been forced to recruit Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis to fight in Syria!
These events shake a "moderate" president. Is he in danger? Will he rather get out of this crisis?
Rohani does not have much room for maneuver. His constituents had given him a great victory with 57% of the votes, but they were hoping for big reforms. Today, they are disenchanted. They saw this president say "moderate" forced to deal with conservative ministers. Ayatollah Khamenei has been steadily putting his teeth in the wheel. There is no way, for example, to entrust a ministry to a woman or a Sunni (a minority that represents nearly 10% of the population). Here again, broken promises. But if the challenge lasts or increases, this president can no longer prevent the intervention of "pasdaran" (editor's note: Guardians of the Revolution) and "bassidji" (volunteer militia), who respond directly to the orders of the Supreme Leader. The ultra-conservatives are just waiting for an excuse to stumble Rohani.
We have seen the effigies of the supreme guide burned! However, the repression seems less extreme than in 2009. How to explain it?
There were still about twenty dead and hundreds of people arrested! But you're right, it's pretty new to see protesters openly attacking the guide. We have heard slogans such as: "The people are reduced to begging while Monsieur thinks he is God!" That said, the repression of 2009 left traces. The regime wants to avoid giving the impression again that it is afraid. Moreover, the Revolutionary Guards are themselves part of the problem, since they manage 20% of the Iranian economy ... and display their privileges. However, during this time, there was talk of increasing the price of gasoline by 50%!
Is it possible that the regime allows demonstrations to better identify the protesters?
This hypothesis can not be ruled out. That's why many protesters wear masks! Protesters are criticized by reformist politicians, who support Rohani.
Can the movement last without structure?
It's a weakness, of course. The movement is spontaneous. There is no watchword or personality capable of assuming leadership. It will be difficult to maintain the challenge in the long term. That said, it is still a serious crisis for the regime, which held a triumphalist speech after the nuclear agreement or the victory in Syria forces supporting Bashar al-Assad.
The Mujahideen of the people, the regime's bête noire
No sooner had the unrest erupted in the country than the Iranian regime began to denounce a destabilizing action led by the Mujahideen of the people. President Rohani did not say their name but he asked France to put an end to the activities of the Iranian "terrorist group" it hosts on its territory. Now grouped in the National Council of Resistance of Iran (CRNI) led by Maryam Rajavi, the People's Mujahideen left Iran after the Shah's overthrow in 1979. They have long suffered from a bad reputation that has earned them to be effectively classified as terrorist movements by the United States but also by several European countries. But it's past. Today, the NCRI is listened to and even supported by political leaders who no longer hesitate to appear alongside Maryam Rajavi. This explains why the Tehran regime accuses its "foreign enemies" of being behind the unrest in the country. But have the Mujahideen become so powerful as to be a real threat? Most experts tend to minimize their weight by insisting that they represent an opposition from the outside that has no real foundation within the country. "If we do not represent anything, why is the regime putting so much energy into fighting us?" Said Behzad Naziri, a member of the NCRI's Foreign Affairs Committee. The movement gathered nearly 100,000 people at its last gathering in Villepinte (Paris). And he claims a strong anchorage in Iran. "There are all the families of our martyrs. This is a network that extends to all cities, "says Naziri. For the NCRI representative, the events that occurred were predictable. Unemployment and rising cost of living would have been the trigger. "We did not want to listen to us when the nuclear deal was signed, but we warned that Iran was a giant of clay. This time, it is not the reformist clan that opposes the conservative clan. These are the people who do not want this diet at all, "he says. Alain Jourdan(TDG)
By Andrés German
Mohammad-Reza Djalili, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development.
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The rich mullahs to suffocate and the galley people shame to the Iranian out dictatorial leaders