Iran Conquered Syria

Iran is emerging as the winner of the civil war and this is bad news for all of us.

 

By Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Professor at Bar Ilan University, Former IDF Military Intelligence Officer, Arab Issues Specialist

Translated and adapted by Albert Soued writer, http://symbole.chez.com for www.nuitdorient.com

Source: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/20689

http://www.nuitdorient.com/n26101.htm

 

 

The Western world has accepted the fact that Russia, present on Syrian soil for 2 years, occupies the Mediterranean coast with 2 Ports and 2 airports. He got used to seeing Hezbollah and Lebanese Shiite militias involved in the Syrian conflict and supporting President Bashar al-Assad. In addition, other Shiite militias led by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are flocking from Iraq and Afghanistan. These forces sometimes have losses and this gives the impression on the ground that Iran has simply sent Shiite "gangs" to fight Sunni "gangs".

But the real situation is totally different, because the Iranian forces engaged in Syria are no longer "gangs" or militia. It is a real army, formed and educated by the Revolutionary Guards, an army that has infantry, tanks, artillery, commandos, air force, logistics and intelligence network. This army was built slowly for 4 years, throughout the civil war, "known and seen" world media.

The biggest offensive conducted by this army has freed the region of Aleppo from the grip of the Islamic State or IS (2016). Russia and Iran cooperated, with Russia bombing through the air and Iranian forces aided by Hezbollah and other Shiite militias gaining ground for the Assad regime. Iran expanded its sphere of influence in early 2017, capturing the entire desert area of ​​central and eastern Syria. Today ISIS is endangered and is fighting for its survival in three places: Mosul in Iraq, Raqqa in Syria and Deir al Zor. When Mosul falls the rest will follow.

It should be noted that the regular Iranian army took advantage of the vacuum left by the withdrawal of the Islamic State from these sparsely populated areas. It is estimated today that Iran controls 60% of Syriadirectly by the Revolutionary Guard Army or through Hezbollah and Shiite militias.

The Iranian armed forces have important bases in Syria that allow them to move freely in the country. Tadmor is an air base in the center of the country, which allows Iran to quickly deliver any military equipment, weapon, or missile. And this concerns the IDF that attacked this base last March, probably destroying a deposit of missiles and rockets.

Recall that so far Iran has been transporting arms to Syria via commercial airlines via Damascus; and when Israel was bombarding the depots at the airport, the media was indignant ... Faced with these systematic destructions, Iran concluded that Israel had good and quick local intelligence. For Iran the base of Tadmor has the advantage of being hundreds of km from Israel, while Damascus is 30 km. And intelligence seemed more difficult to obtain; but Tadmor was immediately bombed ... Rumors speak of another secret airport in Alsin in the south of Syria, on the Irako-Jordanian-Syrian border ... This zone is crucial for Iran, because it allows the territorial continuity between Iraq and Syria, and the easy transportation of Iranian men and equipment to Lebanon and Hezbollah, the important arm of the Iranian octopus. Control over this path makes Iran the hegemonic power of the region, from Central Asia to the Mediterranean.

And all this before the open eyes of the great powers, the United States and Russia, each with its own interests. For Russia, it is important to control the Alawite coastal zone where strategic ports and airports are located and to consolidate the Assad regime for this purpose. For this Russia seeks to destroy the Sunni militias financed by Arabia and the emirates. But Russia is cautious about Turkey fighting Kurds as well as Shiite militias and the Sunni Islamic state. As a result, Turkey is neutralized and can not fight against Assad.

The United States has observed Iran's progress in the Middle East, without seriously opposing it because of the choice of former President Obama for the hegemony of Shiite Iran in this region. Mashreq "(orient), to the detriment of Arabia, leaving" the Maghreb "to the Sunnah. Today President Trump is concerned about the final elimination of ISIS, which is on track, but will take a few more months. He wants a total defeat of the Caliphate of al Baghdadi to dissuade any new impulse of Islamic state. It seems that in the entourage of Trump, there are experts who consider it useful to fill the void left by the Islamic State by Iran, rather than chaos. It is likely that an agreement was reached with Russia to allow Iran to occupy this desert area of ​​Syria, to prevent the IS from returning.

But we must also know that the Shiite forces that invaded Syria (Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Afghans) have been conducting ethnic cleansing for the last four years of Sunni citizens who have been ejected in camps, their villages and homes having been attributed to Shiite migrants from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Taking advantage of Obama's maneuvers and Trump's strategic choices, Iran is in fact the main winner of this Syrian civil war. No one will be able to dislodge the Iranian and affiliated forces of the country.

We in Israel, in Europe and in the United States must get used to the fact that Iran controls important territories of 3 countries, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, which connects this country by land to Mediterranean. This explains the relaxation of Hassan Nasrallah vis-à-vis Israel and the Israeli silence in front of this advance full of threats.

Two years ago, Israel thought that Hezbollah was bogged down in Syria and was no longer threatening Israel. Today Iran has become Israel's immediate neighbor and the over-armed Hezbollah is part of the Iranian army, nestled a few miles from Israel.

And Israel's media fails to describe the situation of Iranian forces in Syria and the immediate and long-term threats. Nobody says that Iran is the main and real winner of the civil war in Syria. It is high time that the whole world know it !

 

Iran has conquered Syria

by Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a senior lecturer in the Department of Arabic at Bar-Ilan University. He served in IDF Military Intelligence for 25 years, specializing in Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups and the Syrian domestic arena. Thoroughly familiar with Arab media in real time, he is often interviewed in Israel.
June 30, 2017 - Written for Arutz Sheva, translated by Rochel Sylvetsky

Source: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/20689 – 

Iran has emerged victor in the Syrian civil war. And that bodes ill for the rest of us.

The world has accepted the fact that it has had two forces in Syria and the other, with its two airbases. It has become used to Hezbollah, the Shiite Lebanese militia, involved in the fighting in Syria and giving Assad much-needed support. Other Shiite militias, commanded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, are reported to have arrived from Iraq and Afghanistan. These forces sometimes endure losses on Syrian land, leaving the impression that Iran simply feels some Shiite gangs to fight Sunni gangs on Syrian soil. 

The real situation is totally different, because the Iranian forces in Syria are not gangs anymore, nor are they militias. They are an army by every existing definition of one. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are charged with building up Iranian forces in Syria, and they are a regular Iranian armed force, not a militia and certainly not a gang. An army. They have infantry, commando, tank, artillery, air force, intelligence and logistics units. This Iranian army's presence has slowly evolved on Syrian soil over the last four years and it has done so under the radar of world media.

The largest military offensive in Syria in which Iran's army took off from the northern city of Aleppo from the Islamic State in 2016. Russia and Iran cooperated in the operation, with Russia bombing from the air and Iranian forces, along with Hezbollah and other Shiite militias , advancing on the ground and handing over control of conquered areas to Assad's army.

Iran has been expanding the area controlled by its forces since early 2017, in the hands of the Sunni Islamic State (Daesh), the organization now fighting for its in three places: Mosul in Iraq, its capital city Raqqa in Syria and Dir A-Zur in eastern Syria. Once Mosul falls, into the hands of the Iranian Army, any day now, the other two cities will follow suit.

Iran's regular army forces took over the power vacuum created by the Islamic State's retreat to take over Syria's central and eastern sparsely pulated desert regions. I estimate that Iran controls over 60% of Syria today, either directly - through its Revolutionary Guards - or indirectly, through Hezbollah and Shiite militias. 

Iran's armed forces have several important bases in Syria that allow them complete freedom of movement. Most important of these is the Tadmor airfield in the center of the country, allowing for rockets and mortars and other weapons. Israel is extremely concerned about this development and in this area of ​​Tadmor region. The foreign press reported that the raid was an Iranian rocket storage facility.

The entire story shows Iran is running its affairs. Until recently, Iran used commercial flights to hide its arms, landing in the Damascus International Airport, which was repeatedly reported to the airport. Iran concluded that Israeli intelligence had enlisted Syrian citizens who work in real time. Damascus is not far from Israel, allowing the IDF to operate effectively against the Syrian capital.

In contrast, the Tadmor airfield is hundreds of kilometers from Israel.The area has few residents, making it harder for Israel to enlist people to pass on information. Israel, however, did bomb Tadmor, possibly having found another source of information. The war of the minds is being waged all the time, even though the public may be blissfully unaware of it.

Reports have claimed that Iran is now using another airport, Alsin, in the Altanef region of southern Syria, near the three-country Syria-Iraq-Jordan border. There is a border crossing between Iraq and Syria, which allows Iran to freely travel to Syria. Iranian activity along the Iraq-Syria border is meant to create a contingent land passage from Iran to Syria via Iraq, resulting in Lebanon being under the influence of all interests and purposes. Hezbollah is the Lebanese arm of the Iranian octopus, so that it is located in the region of Asia and the Mediterranean Sea.

In this context, it is important to note that this is happening under the watchful eyes of global powers, Russia and the United States, each concerned with its own interests. The Russian interest is clear: Russia wants to strenghthen Assad and destroy all the Sunni organizations fighting with Sunni Arab countries including Turkey. He was an enemy of Assad and his Iranian allies, making Erdogan an important link in the Russo-Iranian coalition supporting Assad.

The US Observed the Growing Strength of Iran in Syria. Up to January 2017 the US gives silent assent to Iran's moves, because Obama wanted to empower Iran at the expense of the Saudis. He might have thought it best to give the Shiite Arabs and Iranians control of the "Masrek", the name for the region to the east of Israel, while the area from Egypt westward, known as "Maghreb," would be under Sunni control .

Now that Trump is in the White House, the main goal of American activity in Syria is the elimination of Islamic State, aka Daesh. The US is busy creating "moderate rebel" forces and an alliance ith the Kurds who, helped by US air power, were made to get rid of Caliph Abu Bakr al Baghdad and the state he established. The reason the US is concentrating on Daesh is the American fear, shared by Europe, that the terror-state model of Islamic State might seem like a successful one in Muslim eyes. That could lead to Islamic State clones in other parts of the world, including Europe, with the local Islamist public providing a basic support.

Trump did not see Iran's growing power in Syria. For example, the United States has not yet begun a meeting of the Security Council on the subject, even though the Security Council is prohibiting Iran from transferring weaponry out of its borders. It is quite possible that there are those in the US who would like to see the Iranian takeover of the Syrian desert as a positive development, preventing such a lead to a problematic group, such as Islamic State, taking over instead.

There might be an understanding between Trump and the Russians that allows Iran to take over central and eastern Syria, while keeping these regions from becoming a place of refuge for Daesh fighters. This article is available from the Government of the United States. 

The Coalition of Shiite forces that invaded Syria (Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Afghans) are carrying out ethnic cleansing against Sunni Syrian citizens, Sunni residents are in their homes and their homes for Shiite migrants from Syria , Iraq and Afganistan.

This is how, maneuvering between Obama's government's purposeful intentions and Trump's choice of objectives, Iran managed to become clear in the Syrian war. No one in the world will succeed in the Iranian army from Syria, and we, in Israel, Europe and the US, will now have a wide swath of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Hezbollah in Lebanon is now connected to Iran by land, and that is the reason Hassan Nasrallah seems such confidence vis à vis Israel, and why Israel hesitates to build a concrete wall in its own territory to protect Israelis from Hezbollah snipers.

Two years ago, when Syria was in the midst of falling apart, there were Israelis who claimed that Israel's security situation had been improved and that it was a stuck in the Syrian quagmire. Today it looks very different. Instead of Syria, we have Iran as our next neighbor. Hezbollah is no longer an isolated terror group in Lebanon but an important arm of the Iranian entity, only a short distance from Israel's border.

Worst of all is the fact that Israel's media, which reports from time to time on Iranian forces in Syria, does not show the larger, more threatening picture, the one that has developed from the Iranian line that connects the dots on the map of what was once more Syria.

Iran has emerged the great, ultimate victor of the civil war in Syria. The sooner we and the rest of the world are doing this, the better off we and the rest of the world will be.